MEDIA*OR: Pandora Stock Falls On Disppointing Forecast, No Listener Growth

After closing down 2.4% on Thursday, Pandora stock fell as much as 5% more in after hours trading. The drop came as the company reported better that expected Q4 / FY16 revenue, but a issued a weaker forecast for the next quarter and fiscal year. Total active listeners fell slightly from 81.1 million to 81 million. while paid subscribers ticked up slightly.

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Pandora Q4 / FY16 Report To Investor Highlights

Fourth quarter revenue was expected to be in the range of $362 million to $374 million; adjusted EBITDA loss is expected to be in the range of $51 million to $39 million
Full year revenue was expected to be in the range of $1.354 billion to $1.366 billion; adjusted EBITDA loss is expected to be in the range of $140 million to $128 million

Pandora

Q4 2016 total revenue was $392.6 million, growing 17% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $30.4 million. Losses
Full year 2016 total revenue was $1.385 billion, growing 19% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $119.5 million

Advertising business highlights:

Q4 2016 Ad RPMs were $67.43, growing 18% year-over-year
Full year 2016 Ad RPMs were $55.94, growing 11% year-over-year
Q4 2016 advertising revenue was $313.3 million, growing 16% year-over-year
Full year 2016 advertising revenue was $1.072 billion, growing 15% year-over-year

Ticketing business highlights:

Q4 2016 ticketing service revenue was $19.4 million, growing approximately 20% year-over-year
Full year 2016 ticketing service revenue was $86.6 million, growing approximately 25% year-over-year

Q4 user metrics:

Active listeners were 81 million (end of the fourth quarter of 2016), down from 81.1 million
Subscribers grew 12% to 4.39 million (end of the fourth quarter of 2016) compared to 3.93 million for the same period of the prior year

We will also share on the call that coming out of January, we saw continued growth in subs to 4.48 million

Q1 / FY17 Guidance:

Q1 revenue is expected to be in the range of $310 million to $320 million; adjusted EBITDA loss is expected to be in the range of $80 million to $70 million
FY17 revenue is expected to be in the range of $1.55 billion to $1.70 billion. At this time, we are not providing full year 2017 adjusted EBITDA guidance. Full year 2017 adjusted EBITDA perspectives and considerations will be discussed on the quarterly conference call.